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Variation in Cold-Related Mortality in England Since the Introduction of the Cold Weather Plan: Which Areas Have the Greatest Unmet Needs?

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  • Peninah Murage

    (Department of Public Health, Environment and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15–17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK)

  • Shakoor Hajat

    (Department of Public Health, Environment and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 15–17 Tavistock Place, London, WC1H 9SH, UK)

  • Angie Bone

    (European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter College of Medicine and Health, Heavitree Road, Exeter, EX1 2LU, UK)

Abstract

The Cold Weather Plan (CWP) in England was introduced to prevent the adverse health effects of cold weather; however, its impact is currently unknown. This study characterizes cold-related mortality and fuel poverty at STP (Sustainability and Transformation Partnership) level, and assesses changes in cold risk since the introduction of the CWP. Time series regression was used to estimate mortality risk for up to 28 days following exposure. Area level fuel poverty was used to indicate mitigation against cold exposure and mapped alongside area level risk. We found STP variations in mortality risk, ranging from 1.74, 1.44–2.09 (relative risk (RR), 95% CI) in Somerset, to 1.19, 1.01–1.40 in Cambridge and Peterborough. Following the introduction of the CWP, national-level mortality risk declined significantly in those aged 0–64 (1.34, 1.23–1.45, to 1.09, 1.00–1.19), but increased significantly among those aged 75+ (1.36, 1.28–1.44, to 1.58, 1.47–1.70) and for respiratory conditions (1.78, 1.56–2.02, to 2.4, 2.10–2.79). We show how spatial variation in cold mortality risk has increased since the introduction of the CWP, which may reflect differences in implementation of the plan. Combining risk with fuel poverty information identifies 14 STPs with the greatest need to address the cold effect, and that would gain most from enhanced CWP activity or additional intervention measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Peninah Murage & Shakoor Hajat & Angie Bone, 2018. "Variation in Cold-Related Mortality in England Since the Introduction of the Cold Weather Plan: Which Areas Have the Greatest Unmet Needs?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2018:i:11:p:2588-:d:183990
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Healy, John D. & Clinch, J. Peter, 2002. "Fuel poverty, thermal comfort and occupancy: results of a national household-survey in Ireland," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(3-4), pages 329-343, November.
    2. James E. Bennett & Marta Blangiardo & Daniela Fecht & Paul Elliott & Majid Ezzati, 2014. "Vulnerability to the mortality effects of warm temperature in the districts of England and Wales," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(4), pages 269-273, April.
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