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Modelling the Transmission Dynamics and Control of Mumps in Mainland China

Author

Listed:
  • Yong Li

    (Key Laboratory of Eco-Environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
    School of Information and Mathematics, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 434023, China
    Current address: No. 1 Nanhuan Road, Jingzhou 434023, China.
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Xianning Liu

    (Key Laboratory of Eco-Environments in Three Gorges Reservoir Region (Ministry of Education), School of Mathematics and Statistics, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Lianwen Wang

    (Department of Mathematics, Hubei University for Nationalities, Enshi 445000, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

Mumps is a common childhood viral disease and children have been vaccinated throughout the world since 1967. The incidence of mumps has increased with more than 300,000 young people infected with mumps annually in mainland China since 2005. Therefore, we designed and analyzed long-term mumps surveillance data in an SVEILR (susceptible–vaccinated–exposed–severely infectious–mildly infectious–recovered) dynamic transmission model with optimized parameter values to describe the dynamics of mumps infections in China. There were 18.02% of mumps infected young adults seeking medical advice. The vaccine coverage has been insufficient in China. Young adults with frequent contact and mild infection were identified as a major driver of mumps epidemics. The reproduction number of mumps was determined 4.28 in China. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of mumps control measures. We propose to increase the vaccine coverage and make two doses of MMR (Measles, mumps and rubella) vaccines freely available in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Li & Xianning Liu & Lianwen Wang, 2017. "Modelling the Transmission Dynamics and Control of Mumps in Mainland China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-17, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:15:y:2017:i:1:p:33-:d:124439
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qinqin Xu & Runzi Li & Yafei Liu & Cheng Luo & Aiqiang Xu & Fuzhong Xue & Qing Xu & Xiujun Li, 2017. "Forecasting the Incidence of Mumps in Zibo City Based on a SARIMA Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-11, August.
    2. Jietao Zheng & Weixiao Han & Baofa Jiang & Wei Ma & Ying Zhang, 2017. "Infectious Diseases and Tropical Cyclones in Southeast China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-11, May.
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