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Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China

Author

Listed:
  • Yong Li

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University, No. 152 Luo Yu Road, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Jinhui Zhang

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University, No. 152 Luo Yu Road, Wuhan 430079, China)

  • Xinan Zhang

    (School of Mathematics and Statistics, Huazhong Normal University, No. 152 Luo Yu Road, Wuhan 430079, China)

Abstract

This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it is larger than 1. Thus, we conclude that HFMD will persist in China under the current conditions, so we investigate the preventive measures to control the HFMD. If the preventive measures proposed in our paper were implemented, HFMD would be controlled quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Yong Li & Jinhui Zhang & Xinan Zhang, 2014. "Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-10, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2014:i:3:p:3108-3117:d:34008
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    Cited by:

    1. Chengdong Xu, 2017. "Spatio-Temporal Pattern and Risk Factor Analysis of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease Associated with Under-Five Morbidity in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-13, April.
    2. Chao Song & Yaqian He & Yanchen Bo & Jinfeng Wang & Zhoupeng Ren & Huibin Yang, 2018. "Risk Assessment and Mapping of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease at the County Level in Mainland China Using Spatiotemporal Zero-Inflated Bayesian Hierarchical Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-16, July.

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