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Predictive Modeling of West Nile Virus Transmission Risk in the Mediterranean Basin: How Far from Landing?

Author

Listed:
  • Véronique Chevalier

    (Cirad, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France)

  • Annelise Tran

    (Cirad, UPR AGIRs, Montpellier F-34398, France
    Cirad, UMR TETIS, Montpellier F-34398, France)

  • Benoit Durand

    (Anses, Epidemiology Unit, Laboratoire de Santé Animale, Université Paris-Est, Maisons-Alfort F-94706, France)

Abstract

The impact on human and horse health of West Nile fever (WNF) recently and dramatically increased in Europe and neighboring countries. Involving several mosquito and wild bird species, WNF epidemiology is complex. Despite the implementation of surveillance systems in several countries of concern, and due to a lack of knowledge, outbreak occurrence remains unpredictable. Statistical models may help identifying transmission risk factors. When spatialized, they provide tools to identify areas that are suitable for West Nile virus transmission. Mathematical models may be used to improve our understanding of epidemiological process involved, to evaluate the impact of environmental changes or test the efficiency of control measures. We propose a systematic literature review of publications aiming at modeling the processes involved in WNF transmission in the Mediterranean Basin. The relevance of the corresponding models as predictive tools for risk mapping, early warning and for the design of surveillance systems in a changing environment is analyzed.

Suggested Citation

  • Véronique Chevalier & Annelise Tran & Benoit Durand, 2013. "Predictive Modeling of West Nile Virus Transmission Risk in the Mediterranean Basin: How Far from Landing?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:11:y:2013:i:1:p:67-90:d:31536
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    Cited by:

    1. Maya Negev & Shlomit Paz & Alexandra Clermont & Noemie Groag Pri-Or & Uri Shalom & Tamar Yeger & Manfred S. Green, 2015. "Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin — Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-26, June.
    2. Mircea Coroian & Mina Petrić & Adriana Pistol & Anca Sirbu & Cristian Domșa & Andrei Daniel Mihalca, 2020. "Human West Nile Meningo-Encephalitis in a Highly Endemic Country: A Complex Epidemiological Analysis on Biotic and Abiotic Risk Factors," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-15, November.

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