Public Support for Flood Risk Management: Insights from an Italian Alpine Survey Using Systems Thinking

This study presents the results of a survey on flood risk awareness conducted in the Italian Alps, examining the impacts of a major weather event on public perception and trust. It develops a systems-thinking framework to analyse dynamic feedback loops influencing flood risk management support over time. The survey data collection overlapped with a severe storm event in Central Europe, the storm “Adrian” (also known as “Vaia”). This provided a unique pre- and post-event perspective. Results highlight the critical role of individual knowledge, trust in authorities, and social group dynamics in shaping risk perception processes. The study shows how major weather events can change perceptions, sense of safety, and institutional trust within local communities, and more interestingly, these changes can vary spatially. The findings are summarised using a systems-thinking framework, which helps to identify possible feedback loops between flood risk management interventions and long-term public support. The study emphasizes the importance of forward-looking, systems-thinking approaches in the design, monitoring, and evaluation of flood risk management plans. These approaches allow one to account for often-overlooked dynamics, such as spatially varying feedback loops and counter-intuitive effects, ultimately improving the long-term effectiveness of flood risk management.