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Synthetic Demand Flow Generation Using the Proximity Factor

Author

Listed:
  • Ekin Yalvac

    (Edward P. Fits Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27606, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Michael G. Kay

    (Edward P. Fits Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27606, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

One of the biggest challenges in designing a logistics network is predicting the demand flows between all pairs of points in the network. Currently, the gravity model is mainly used for estimating the demand flow between points. However, the gravity model uses historical data to estimate values for its multiple parameters and distance between pairs to forecast the demand flow. Distance values close to zero and unprecedented changes in demand flow data create numerical instability for the gravity model’s output. Hence, the proximity factor, a single parameter model that uses the relative ordering of pairs instead of distance, was developed. In this paper, we systematically compare the proximity factor and the gravity model. It is shown that the proximity factor is a robust in terms of reliability and competitive alternative to the gravity model. According to our analysis, the proximity factor model can replace the gravity model in some applications when no historical data are available to adjust the parameters of the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Ekin Yalvac & Michael G. Kay, 2025. "Synthetic Demand Flow Generation Using the Proximity Factor," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-20, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:7:y:2025:i:1:p:14-:d:1615516
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