Navigating Environmental Concerns: Unveiling the Role of Economic Governance, Energy Transition, and Population Aging on Transport-Based CO 2 Emissions in China

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is crucial for addressing global environmental challenges. SDG 13 calls for urgent climate action, while SDG 7 promotes sustainable energy. These objectives are particularly relevant to China, where transport-related CO 2 emissions continue to rise due to urbanization, industrial growth, and increasing energy demand. This study examines the impact of economic governance, population aging, human capital, financial innovation, GDP growth, and energy transition on China’s transport-related CO 2 emissions, using quarterly data from 2006Q1 to 2018Q4. The Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR) is applied to analyze heterogeneous effects across different emission levels. The findings reveal that economic governance (ECOG), energy transition (ENT), and human capital (HI) significantly reduce transport CO 2 emissions (TCO 2E ) by enhancing institutional effectiveness and promoting clean energy adoption. In contrast, population aging (POPAGE), financial innovation (FI), and GDP contribute to higher emissions by increasing energy consumption and private transport dependency. These insights highlight the need for stronger governance frameworks, sustainable financial policies, and increased investment in renewable energy. Policymakers should strengthen environmental regulations, expand green financing initiatives, and enhance public transport infrastructure to align with SDGs 7 and 13. By implementing these strategies, China can make significant progress toward reducing transport emissions, achieving carbon neutrality, and ensuring long-term sustainability.