The Impact of Uranium Resource Constraints on China’s Nuclear Power Development

As a low-carbon and efficient energy source, nuclear power plays an indispensable role in China’s pursuit of carbon neutrality. However, existing studies on China’s nuclear energy development often overlook the constraints posed by uranium resources, limiting a comprehensive assessment of the pathways to carbon neutrality. This study incorporates uranium resource constraints into the China Global Energy Model (C-GEM) to analyze in detail the impact of uranium scarcity on China’s nuclear power development, electricity costs, and carbon emissions. Under a scenario of severe uranium resource constraints, the results indicate that nuclear power generation in 2060 is projected to be 35–50% lower than in a high-resource scenario, with nuclear power costs increasing by over 12% and carbon prices rising by approximately 2%. Without robust management of the uranium supply, the development of nuclear power may be constrained, hindering China’s ability to achieve its carbon neutrality targets. Therefore, this study suggests that China’s nuclear energy policies should focus on strengthening uranium resource security through enhanced domestic and international exploration, investing in advanced fuel recycling and high-efficiency reactor technologies, and integrating these measures into the broader low-carbon energy framework to ensure the sustainable development of nuclear power.