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Multiple Factors Coupling Probability Calculation Model of Transmission Line Ice-Shedding

Author

Listed:
  • Hao Pan

    (Joint Laboratory of Power Remote Sensing Technology, Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Company Ltd., Kunming 650217, China)

  • Fangrong Zhou

    (Joint Laboratory of Power Remote Sensing Technology, Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Company Ltd., Kunming 650217, China)

  • Yi Ma

    (Joint Laboratory of Power Remote Sensing Technology, Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Company Ltd., Kunming 650217, China)

  • Yutang Ma

    (Joint Laboratory of Power Remote Sensing Technology, Electric Power Research Institute, Yunnan Power Grid Company Ltd., Kunming 650217, China)

  • Ping Qiu

    (Zhaotong Power Supply Bureau of Yunnan Power Grid Co., Ltd., Zhaotong 657000, China)

  • Jun Guo

    (School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China)

Abstract

After a transmission line is covered by ice in winter, ice-shedding and vibration occurs under special meteorological and external dynamic conditions, which leads to intense transmission line shaking. Transmission line ice-shedding and vibration often cause line flashover trips and outages. In January 2018, three 500 kV transmission lines, namely, the 500 kV Guanli line, the 500 kV Dushan line, and the 500 kV Guanqiao line, tripped and cut off due to ice-shedding and vibration in Anhui province, seriously threatening the safe operation of a large power grid. Current studies mainly focus on analyzing the influence factors and characteristics of line ice-shedding and investigating suppression measures, but they only analyze the correlation between each influencing factor and icing or shedding, and do not consider the coupling effects between multiple factors. In this paper, the key influencing factors and the probability distribution of transmission line ice-shedding were analyzed, and a multiple-factor coupling fault probability calculation model of line ice-shedding based on Copula function was proposed. The fault probability was calculated directly by considering multiple influence factors at the same time, which effectively overcame the error caused by multi-factor transformation in fuzzy membership degree and other methods. It provided an important decision-making basis for preventing and controlling transmission line ice-shedding faults.

Suggested Citation

  • Hao Pan & Fangrong Zhou & Yi Ma & Yutang Ma & Ping Qiu & Jun Guo, 2024. "Multiple Factors Coupling Probability Calculation Model of Transmission Line Ice-Shedding," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-24, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:5:p:1208-:d:1350415
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jiazheng Lu & Jun Guo & Jianping Hu & Li Yang & Tao Feng, 2017. "Analysis of ice disasters on ultra-high-voltage direct-current transmission lines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 86(1), pages 203-217, March.
    2. Yunyun Xie & Linyan Huang & Da Wang & Huaiping Ding & Xiaochun Yin, 2019. "Modeling and Analysis of Progressive Ice Shedding along a Transmission Line during Thermal De-Icing," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-12, June.
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