Continuously Learning Prediction Models for Smart Domestic Hot Water Management

Domestic hot water (DHW) consumption represents a significant portion of household energy usage, prompting the exploration of smart heat pump technology to efficiently meet DHW demands while minimizing energy waste. This paper proposes an innovative investigation of models using deep learning and continual learning algorithms to personalize DHW predictions of household occupants’ behavior. Such models, alongside a control system that decides when to heat, enable the development of a heat-pumped-based smart DHW production system, which can heat water only when needed and avoid energy loss due to the storage of hot water. Deep learning models, and attention-based models particularly, can be used to predict time series efficiently. However, they suffer from catastrophic forgetting, meaning that when they dynamically learn new patterns, older ones tend to be quickly forgotten. In this work, the continuous learning of DHW consumption prediction has been addressed by benchmarking proven continual learning methods on both real dwelling and synthetic DHW consumption data. Task-per-task analysis reveals, among the data from real dwellings that do not present explicit distribution changes, a gain compared to the non-evolutive model. Our experiment with synthetic data confirms that continual learning methods improve prediction performance.