IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v17y2024i11p2688-d1406925.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of Energy Efficiency on Economic Growth: Application of the MARCO Model to the Portuguese Economy 1960–2014

Author

Listed:
  • João Santos

    (MARETEC—Marine, Environment and Technology Center, LARSyS—Laboratory of Robotics and Engineering Systems, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Miguel Viana

    (MARETEC—Marine, Environment and Technology Center, LARSyS—Laboratory of Robotics and Engineering Systems, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal)

  • Jaime Nieto

    (Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK)

  • Paul E. Brockway

    (Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK)

  • Marco Sakai

    (Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK)

  • Tiago Domingos

    (MARETEC—Marine, Environment and Technology Center, LARSyS—Laboratory of Robotics and Engineering Systems, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal)

Abstract

The benefits of energy efficiency are recognized in multiple socio-economic spheres. Still, the quantitative impact on macroeconomic performance is not fully understood, as modeling tools are not thermodynamically consistent—failing to explicitly include the useful stage of energy flows and/or thermodynamic efficiencies in primary–final–useful energy transformations. Misspecification in the link between energy use and the economy underplays the role of energy use and efficiency in economic growth. In this work, we develop and implement the Macroeconometric Resource Consumption model for Portugal (MARCO-PT), 1960–2014. Based on the post-Keynesian framework developed for the United Kingdom (MARCO-UK), our model explicitly includes thermodynamic energy efficiency, extending the analysis to the useful stage of energy flows. The model’s stochastic equations are econometrically estimated. The historical influence of key variables—namely thermodynamic energy efficiency—on economic output is assessed through counterfactual simulations and computation of year-by-year output elasticities. The MARCO-PT model adequately describes the historical behavior of endogenous variables. Although its influence has decreased over time, thermodynamic efficiency has consistently been the major contributor to economic growth between 1960–2014, with an average output elasticity of 0.46. Total useful exergy is also a major contributing factor, with an average output elasticity of 0.29. Both have a higher influence than capital, labor, or other energy variables (final energy, prices). An adequate integration of thermodynamic efficiency is thus crucial for macroeconomic models.

Suggested Citation

  • João Santos & Miguel Viana & Jaime Nieto & Paul E. Brockway & Marco Sakai & Tiago Domingos, 2024. "The Impact of Energy Efficiency on Economic Growth: Application of the MARCO Model to the Portuguese Economy 1960–2014," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:11:p:2688-:d:1406925
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/11/2688/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/17/11/2688/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Santos, João & Borges, Afonso S. & Domingos, Tiago, 2021. "Exploring the links between total factor productivity and energy efficiency: Portugal, 1960–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    3. Marcel P. Timmer & Mary O’Mahony & Bart van Ark, 2007. "EU KLEMS Growth and Productivity Accounts: An Overview," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 14, pages 71-85, Spring.
    4. Wall, Goran, 1987. "Exergy conversion in the Swedish society," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 55-73, June.
    5. Ayres, Robert U. & Warr, Benjamin, 2005. "Accounting for growth: the role of physical work," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 181-209, June.
    6. Joan Robinson, 1953. "The Production Function and the Theory of Capital," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 21(2), pages 81-106.
    7. Warr, Benjamin & Ayres, Robert, 2006. "REXS: A forecasting model for assessing the impact of natural resource consumption and technological change on economic growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 329-378, September.
    8. R. M. Solow, 1974. "Intergenerational Equity and Exhaustible Resources," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 29-45.
    9. Joseph Stiglitz, 1974. "Growth with Exhaustible Natural Resources: Efficient and Optimal Growth Paths," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(5), pages 123-137.
    10. Hudson, Edward A & Jorgenson, Dale W, 1978. "Energy Policy and U.S. Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 118-123, May.
    11. Terry Barker & Annela Anger & Unnada Chewpreecha & Hector Pollitt, 2012. "A new economics approach to modelling policies to achieve global 2020 targets for climate stabilisation," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2), pages 205-221, October.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    13. Edward F. Denison, 1962. "Education, Economic Growth, and Gaps in Information," NBER Chapters, in: Investment in Human Beings, pages 124-128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Bart van Ark, 2014. "Total factor productivity : Lessons from the past and directions for the future," Working Paper Research 271, National Bank of Belgium.
    15. Marcel P. Timmer & Mary O'Mahony & Bart van Ark, 2007. "Growth and productivity accounts from EU KLEMS: An overview," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 200(1), pages 64-78, April.
    16. D. W. Jorgenson & Z. Griliches, 1967. "The Explanation of Productivity Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 34(3), pages 249-283.
    17. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    18. Edward F. Denison, 1962. "Education, Economic Growth, and Gaps in Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(5), pages 124-124.
    19. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688, Elsevier.
    20. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. "The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-1319, September.
    21. Brockway, Paul E. & Sorrell, Steve & Semieniuk, Gregor & Heun, Matthew Kuperus & Court, Victor, 2021. "Energy efficiency and economy-wide rebound effects: A review of the evidence and its implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    22. R. C. D'Arge & K. C. Kogiku, 1973. "Economic Growth and the Environment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 40(1), pages 61-77.
    23. Lindenberger, Dietmar & Kuemmel, Rainer, 2011. "Energy and the State of Nations," EWI Working Papers 2011-11, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    24. R. Stresing & D. Lindenberger & R. Kümmel, 2008. "Cointegration of output, capital, labor, and energy," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 66(2), pages 279-287, November.
    25. Jesus Felipe & J. S. L. McCombie, 2005. "How Sound are the Foundations of the Aggregate Production Function?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 467-488, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Santos, João & Borges, Afonso S. & Domingos, Tiago, 2021. "Exploring the links between total factor productivity and energy efficiency: Portugal, 1960–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Santos, João & Domingos, Tiago & Sousa, Tânia & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2016. "Does a small cost share reflect a negligible role for energy in economic production? Testing for aggregate production functions including capital, labor, and useful exergy through a cointegration-base," MPRA Paper 70850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Santos, João & Domingos, Tiago & Sousa, Tânia & St. Aubyn, Miguel, 2018. "Useful Exergy Is Key in Obtaining Plausible Aggregate Production Functions and Recognizing the Role of Energy in Economic Growth: Portugal 1960–2009," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 103-120.
    4. Santos, João & Borges, Afonso & Domingos, Tiago, 2020. "Exploring the links between total factor productivity, final-to-useful exergy efficiency, and economic growth: Case study Portugal 1960-2014," MPRA Paper 100214, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Macías, Arturo & Matilla-García, Mariano, 2015. "Net energy analysis in a Ramsey–Hotelling growth model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 562-573.
    6. Ayres, Robert U. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2005. "A theory of economic growth with material/energy resources and dematerialization: Interaction of three growth mechanisms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 96-118, October.
    7. Ayres, Robert U., 2008. "Sustainability economics: Where do we stand?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 281-310, September.
    8. Warr, Benjamin & Ayres, Robert U., 2012. "Useful work and information as drivers of economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 93-102.
    9. Aramendia, Emmanuel & Brockway, Paul E. & Pizzol, Massimo & Heun, Matthew K., 2021. "Moving from final to useful stage in energy-economy analysis: A critical assessment," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    10. Marco Sakai & Paul E. Brockway & John R. Barrett & Peter G. Taylor, 2018. "Thermodynamic Efficiency Gains and their Role as a Key ‘Engine of Economic Growth’," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Paul E. Brockway & Matthew K. Heun & João Santos & John R. Barrett, 2017. "Energy-Extended CES Aggregate Production: Current Aspects of Their Specification and Econometric Estimation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-23, February.
    12. Webber, A., 1999. "Newton's Gravity Law and Import Prices in the Asia Pacific," Economics Working Papers WP99-12, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    13. Georges Daw, 2022. "Determinants of Wealth Disparities in the EU: A Multi-scale Development Accounting Investigation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 211-254, June.
    14. Dariusz Kotlewski, 2022. "Przesłanki za wykorzystaniem rachunkowości wzrostu gospodarczego w badaniu specjalizacji regionalnych," Ekonomista, Polskie Towarzystwo Ekonomiczne, issue 2, pages 235-258.
    15. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    16. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 1, pages 1-9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    17. de Meulemeester, Jean-Luc & Rochat, Denis, 1995. "A causality analysis of the link between higher education and economic development," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 351-361, December.
    18. Matthew K. Heun & João Santos & Paul E. Brockway & Randall Pruim & Tiago Domingos & Marco Sakai, 2017. "From Theory to Econometrics to Energy Policy: Cautionary Tales for Policymaking Using Aggregate Production Functions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-44, February.
    19. Serrenho, André Cabrera & Warr, Benjamin & Sousa, Tânia & Ayres, Robert U. & Domingos, Tiago, 2016. "Structure and dynamics of useful work along the agriculture-industry-services transition: Portugal from 1856 to 2009," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-21.
    20. Germain, Marc, 2019. "Georgescu-Roegen versus Solow/Stiglitz: Back to a controversy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-182.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:17:y:2024:i:11:p:2688-:d:1406925. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.