Future Scenarios of Firewood Consumption for Cooking in the Mexican Tropical Region

Within domestic food cooking, burning firewood in three-stone fires (TSF) is a common practice by more than 16 million users in the Mexican tropical climate region (CR-TR). This article aims to evaluate the implementation of improved firewood cookstoves (ICS) to replace TSF in the CR-TR by constructing firewood consumption scenarios covering 2018–2050. The results show that in CR-TR, with the implementation of ICS, the consumption of 354.95 PJ of firewood, 36.6 Mt of CO 2e , 1.29 Mt of CO, and 163.78 kt of PM 2.5 can all be avoided. The most important reduction in firewood consumption, CO 2e emissions and CO and PM 2.5 pollutants, occurs in exclusive firewood users and mixed users who utilize firewood as the primary fuel source, both of whom are low socioeconomic level in rural areas. Furthermore, most paying-for-firewood users often show negative mitigation costs and a high 50% IRR, while all non-paying-for-firewood users have mitigation costs ranging from 7.74 to 41.23 USD/tCO 2e . At the end of the results section, we perform a sensitivity analysis of the relevant parameters, which complements this study. Therefore, implementing ICS will contribute to the solution of climate change, deforestation, and facilitate the formulation of sustainable development policies for the most vulnerable population sector of the Mexican CR-TR.