IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v15y2022i5p1718-d758240.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comparison between Analog Ensemble and Convolutional Neural Network Empirical-Statistical Downscaling Techniques for Reconstructing High-Resolution Near-Surface Wind

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher M. Rozoff

    (Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA)

  • Stefano Alessandrini

    (Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, USA)

Abstract

Empirical-statistical downscaling (ESD) can be a computationally advantageous alternative to dynamical downscaling in representing a high-resolution regional climate. Two distinct strategies of ESD are employed here to reconstruct near-surface winds in a region of rugged terrain. ESD is used to reconstruct the innermost grid of a multiply nested mesoscale model framework for regional climate downscaling. An analog ensemble (AnEn) and a convolutional neural network (CNN) are compared in their ability to represent near-surface winds in the innermost grid in lieu of dynamical downscaling. Downscaling for a 30 year climatology of 10 m April winds is performed for southern MO, USA. Five years of training suffices for producing low mean absolute error and bias for both ESD techniques. However, root-mean-squared error is not significantly reduced by either scheme. In the case of the AnEn, this is due to a minority of cases not producing a satisfactory representation of high-resolution wind, accentuating the root-mean-squared error in spite of a small mean absolute error. Homogeneous comparison shows that the AnEn produces smaller errors than the CNN. Though further tuning may improve results, the ESD techniques considered here show that they can produce a reliable, computationally inexpensive method for reconstructing high-resolution 10 m winds over complex terrain.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher M. Rozoff & Stefano Alessandrini, 2022. "A Comparison between Analog Ensemble and Convolutional Neural Network Empirical-Statistical Downscaling Techniques for Reconstructing High-Resolution Near-Surface Wind," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:5:p:1718-:d:758240
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/5/1718/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/15/5/1718/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. González-Aparicio, I. & Monforti, F. & Volker, P. & Zucker, A. & Careri, F. & Huld, T. & Badger, J., 2017. "Simulating European wind power generation applying statistical downscaling to reanalysis data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 155-168.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao, Qing & Zhou, Shaowu, 2018. "Probabilistic power flow computation considering correlated wind speeds," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 677-685.
    2. Matti Koivisto & Kaushik Das & Feng Guo & Poul Sørensen & Edgar Nuño & Nicolaos Cutululis & Petr Maule, 2019. "Using time series simulation tools for assessing the effects of variable renewable energy generation on power and energy systems," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), May.
    3. Rabbani, R. & Zeeshan, M., 2020. "Exploring the suitability of MERRA-2 reanalysis data for wind energy estimation, analysis of wind characteristics and energy potential assessment for selected sites in Pakistan," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1240-1251.
    4. Reinhold Lehneis & Daniela Thrän, 2023. "Temporally and Spatially Resolved Simulation of the Wind Power Generation in Germany," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Seljom, Pernille & Kvalbein, Lisa & Hellemo, Lars & Kaut, Michal & Ortiz, Miguel Muñoz, 2021. "Stochastic modelling of variable renewables in long-term energy models: Dataset, scenario generation & quality of results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    6. Salvação, Nadia & Bentamy, Abderrahim & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Developing a new wind dataset by blending satellite data and WRF model wind predictions," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 283-295.
    7. Stetter, Chris & Wielert, Henrik & Breitner, Michael H., 2022. "Hidden repowering potential of non-repowerable onshore wind sites in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    8. Guglielmo D’Amico & Filippo Petroni & Salvatore Vergine, 2021. "An Analysis of a Storage System for a Wind Farm with Ramp-Rate Limitation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-25, July.
    9. Kies, Alexander & Schyska, Bruno U. & Bilousova, Mariia & El Sayed, Omar & Jurasz, Jakub & Stoecker, Horst, 2021. "Critical review of renewable generation datasets and their implications for European power system models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Allen, D.J. & Tomlin, A.S. & Bale, C.S.E. & Skea, A. & Vosper, S. & Gallani, M.L., 2017. "A boundary layer scaling technique for estimating near-surface wind energy using numerical weather prediction and wind map data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 1246-1257.
    11. Nicholas Christakis & Ioanna Evangelou & Dimitris Drikakis & George Kossioris, 2024. "A Computational Methodology for Assessing Wind Potential," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(6), pages 1-23, March.
    12. Wang, Shuai & Li, Bin & Li, Guanzheng & Yao, Bin & Wu, Jianzhong, 2021. "Short-term wind power prediction based on multidimensional data cleaning and feature reconfiguration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    13. Muñoz Ortiz, Miguel & Kvalbein, Lisa & Hellemo, Lars, 2021. "Evaluation of open photovoltaic and wind production time series for Norwegian locations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    14. Murcia, Juan Pablo & Koivisto, Matti Juhani & Luzia, Graziela & Olsen, Bjarke T. & Hahmann, Andrea N. & Sørensen, Poul Ejnar & Als, Magnus, 2022. "Validation of European-scale simulated wind speed and wind generation time series," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    15. António Couto & Paula Costa & Teresa Simões, 2021. "Identification of Extreme Wind Events Using a Weather Type Classification," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, July.
    16. Luzia, Graziela & Koivisto, Matti J. & Hahmann, Andrea N., 2023. "Validating EURO-CORDEX climate simulations for modelling European wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    17. Debin Fang & Qiyu Ren & Qian Yu, 2018. "How Elastic Demand Affects Bidding Strategy in Electricity Market: An Auction Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. Ciupăgeanu, Dana-Alexandra & Lăzăroiu, Gheorghe & Barelli, Linda, 2019. "Wind energy integration: Variability analysis and power system impact assessment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 1183-1196.
    19. Fabrizio De Caro & Jacopo De Stefani & Gianluca Bontempi & Alfredo A. Vaccaro & Domenico D. Villacci, 2020. "Robust Assessment of Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Models on Multiple Time Horizons," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/314435, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Jung, Christopher & Schindler, Dirk, 2018. "On the inter-annual variability of wind energy generation – A case study from Germany," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 845-854.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:5:p:1718-:d:758240. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.