An Analytical Hierarchy-Based Method for Quantifying Hydraulic Fracturing Stimulation to Improve Geothermal Well Productivity

Hydraulic fracturing (HF) has been used for years to enhance oil and gas production from conventional and unconventional reservoirs. HF in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) has become increasingly common in recent years. In EGS, hydraulic fracturing creates a geothermal collector in impermeable or low-permeable hot dry rocks. Artificial fracture networks in the collector allow for a continuous flow of fluid in a loop connecting at least two wells (injector and producer). However, it is challenging to assess the fracability of geothermal reservoirs for EGS. Consequently, it is necessary to design a method that considers multiple parameters when evaluating the potential of geothermal development. This study proposes an improved fracability index model (FI) based on the influences of fracability-related geomechanical and petrophysical properties. These include brittle minerals composition, fracture toughness, minimum horizontal in-situ stress, a brittleness index model, and temperature effect to quantify the rock’s fracability. The hierarchical analytic framework was designed based on the correlation between the influencing factors and rock fracability. The results of the qualitative and quantitative approaches were integrated into a mathematical evaluation model. The improved fracability index model’s reliability was evaluated using well logs and 3D seismic data on low-permeable carbonate geothermal reservoirs and shale gas horizontal wells. The results reveal that the improved FI model effectively demonstrates brittle regions in the low-permeable carbonate geothermal reservoir and long horizontal section of shale reservoir. We divide the rock fracability into three levels: FI > 0.59 (the rock fracability is good); 0.59 > FI > 0.32 (the rock fracability is medium); and FI < 0.32, (the rock fracability is poor). The improved FI model can assist in resolving the uncertainties associated with fracability interpretation in determining the optimum location of perforation clusters for hydraulic fracture initiation and propagation in enhanced geothermal systems.