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Impact of Forecasting Models Errors in a Peer-to-Peer Energy Sharing Market

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Gomes

    (GECAD—Research Group on Intelligent Engineering and Computing for Advanced Innovation and Development, Polytechnic of Porto, 4200-072 Porto, Portugal)

  • Hugo Morais

    (INESC-ID—Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores-Investigação e Desenvolvimento, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico—IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Calvin Gonçalves

    (GECAD—Research Group on Intelligent Engineering and Computing for Advanced Innovation and Development, Polytechnic of Porto, 4200-072 Porto, Portugal)

  • Eduardo Gomes

    (INESC-ID—Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores-Investigação e Desenvolvimento, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Instituto Superior Técnico—IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal
    ITI/LARSyS—Interactive Technologies Institute/Laboratory of Robotics and Engineering Systems, Instituto Superior Técnico—IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Lucas Pereira

    (ITI/LARSyS—Interactive Technologies Institute/Laboratory of Robotics and Engineering Systems, Instituto Superior Técnico—IST, Universidade de Lisboa, 1049-001 Lisboa, Portugal)

  • Zita Vale

    (GECAD—Research Group on Intelligent Engineering and Computing for Advanced Innovation and Development, Polytechnic of Porto, 4200-072 Porto, Portugal)

Abstract

The use of energy sharing models in smart grids has been widely addressed in the literature. However, feasible technical solutions that can deploy these models into reality, as well as the correct use of energy forecasts are not properly addressed. This paper proposes a simple, yet viable and feasible, solution to deploy energy management systems on the end-user-side in order to enable not only energy forecasting but also a distributed discriminatory-price auction peer-to-peer energy transaction market. This work also analyses the impact of four energy forecasting models on energy transactions: a mathematical model, a support-vector machine model, an eXtreme Gradient Boosting model, and a TabNet model. To test the proposed solution and models, the system was deployed in five small offices and three residential households, achieving a maximum of energy costs reduction of 10.89% within the community, ranging from 0.24% to 57.43% for each individual agent. The results demonstrated the potential of peer-to-peer energy transactions to promote energy cost reductions and enable the validation of auction-based energy transactions and the use of energy forecasting models in today’s buildings and end-users.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Gomes & Hugo Morais & Calvin Gonçalves & Eduardo Gomes & Lucas Pereira & Zita Vale, 2022. "Impact of Forecasting Models Errors in a Peer-to-Peer Energy Sharing Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-18, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:15:y:2022:i:10:p:3543-:d:813944
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    References listed on IDEAS

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