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Electrification of Online Ride-Hailing Vehicles in China: Intention Modelling and Market Prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Suyang Zhou

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)

  • Jinyi Chen

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)

  • Zhi Wu

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)

  • Yue Qiu

    (School of Electrical Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China)

Abstract

Significant negative impact caused by climate changes, such as economy and life losses, has been experienced globally in recent years, which has called for imminent development and adoption of low carbon technologies in order to mitigate the impact. In 2020, the Chinese government outlined the ‘Dual Carbon’ Goal where its carbon emission will peak before 2030 whilst China will become ‘Carbon Neutral’ before 2060. In China, the amount of carbon emissions from the transportation industry stands in second place and it is predicted that the carbon emission of China’s automobile industry will reach between 21.5 and 30 billion tons in 2030. Actions should be taken as quickly as possible to facilitate the transition from traditional fossil fuel vehicles to low carbon vehicles such as electric vehicles in order to reduce carbon emissions effectively. Based on the questionnaire that is designed to survey the electrification of online ride-hailing vehicles, this paper first establishes a consumer purchase intention model according to the perceived value theory. By evaluating six aspects including functional value, emotional value, social value, functional risk, financial risk and physical and mental risk, the regression model of the consumer purchase intention for electric vehicles is built. Subsequently, the average operating models for petroleum fuel vehicles, hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles are established, and on top of this, a fossil fuel price model can be derived. This price model can identify from which price it will be advantageous to use electric vehicles to run an online ride-hailing service. Moreover, a multi-agent model is established to illustrate the spread of electric vehicles in the online ride-hailing sector and the private car sector, which is used to predict the trend of the EV market development in China from 2020 to 2040.

Suggested Citation

  • Suyang Zhou & Jinyi Chen & Zhi Wu & Yue Qiu, 2021. "Electrification of Online Ride-Hailing Vehicles in China: Intention Modelling and Market Prediction," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-21, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:21:p:7380-:d:672938
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Zhaohua Wang & Xiaoyang Dong, 2016. "Determinants and policy implications of residents’ new energy vehicle purchases: the evidence from China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 155-173, May.
    3. Jeroen Struben & John D. Sterman, 2008. "Transition Challenges for Alternative Fuel Vehicle and Transportation Systems," Post-Print hal-02312277, HAL.
    4. Yang, Shu & Cheng, Peng & Li, Jun & Wang, Shanyong, 2019. "Which group should policies target? Effects of incentive policies and product cognitions for electric vehicle adoption among Chinese consumers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    5. Sheth, Jagdish N. & Newman, Bruce I. & Gross, Barbara L., 1991. "Why we buy what we buy: A theory of consumption values," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 159-170, March.
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