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Low-Carbon Futures for Bioethylene in the United States

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  • Gillian Foster

    (Institute for Ecological Economics, Department of Socioeconomics, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria)

Abstract

The manufacture of the chemical ethylene, a key ingredient in plastics, currently depends on fossil-fuel-derived carbon and generates significant greenhouse gas emissions. Substituting ethylene’s fossil fuel feedstock with alternatives is important for addressing the challenge of global climate change. This paper compares four scenarios for meeting future ethylene supply under differing societal approaches to climate change based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The four scenarios use four perspectives: (1) a sustainability-focused pathway that demands a swift transition to a bioeconomy within 30 years; (2) a regional energy-focused pathway that supports broad biomass use; (3) a fossil-fuel development pathway limited to corn grain; and (4) a fossil-fuel development pathway limited to corn grain and corn stover. Each scenario is developed using the latest scientifically informed future feedstock analyses from the 2016 Billion-Ton report interpreted with perspectives on the future of biomass from recent literature. The intent of this research is to examine how social, economic, and ecological changes determining ethylene supply fit within biophysical boundaries. This new approach to the ethylene feedstocks conundrum finds that phasing out fossil fuels as the main source of U.S. ethylene is possible if current cellulosic ethanol production expands.

Suggested Citation

  • Gillian Foster, 2019. "Low-Carbon Futures for Bioethylene in the United States," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:12:y:2019:i:10:p:1958-:d:233264
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bas Ruijven & Marc Levy & Arun Agrawal & Frank Biermann & Joern Birkmann & Timothy Carter & Kristie Ebi & Matthias Garschagen & Bryan Jones & Roger Jones & Eric Kemp-Benedict & Marcel Kok & Kasper Kok, 2014. "Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 481-494, February.
    2. Wesseling, J.H. & Lechtenböhmer, S. & Åhman, M. & Nilsson, L.J. & Worrell, E. & Coenen, L., 2017. "The transition of energy intensive processing industries towards deep decarbonization: Characteristics and implications for future research," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1303-1313.
    3. Gillian Foster, 2018. "Ethylene Supply in a Fluid Context: Implications of Shale Gas and Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-17, November.
    4. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
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