Non-Destructive Prediction of Apple Moisture Content Using Thermal Diffusivity Phenomics for Quality Assessment

With the surge in digital farming, real-time quality management of fresh produce has become essential. For apples ( Malus domestica Borkh.), consumer demand extends beyond sweetness, texture, and appearance to internal quality factors such as moisture content. Existing non-destructive methods, however, involve costly equipment, complex calibration, and sensitivity to environmental conditions. This study hypothesizes that thermal diffusivity indices derived from surface heating and cooling patterns can accurately predict apple moisture content non-destructively. A total of 823 apples from seven varieties were analyzed using a thermal imaging sensor in a 120-s process comprising 40 s of heating and 80 s of cooling. Key thermal diffusivity indices—minimum, maximum, mean, and max–min values—were extracted and correlated with actual moisture content measured via the drying method. Multiple linear regression and leave-one-out cross-validation confirmed that mean temperature-based models provided the most stable predictions ( R C V 2 ≥ 0.90 for some varieties). Frame optimization and artificial neural networks further improved prediction accuracy for varieties exhibiting higher variability. The proposed method is cost-effective, requires minimal calibration, and is less affected by surface reflectance, outperforming conventional optical methods (e.g., NIR spectroscopy, hyperspectral imaging), especially regarding robustness against surface reflectance variability and calibration complexity. This offers a practical solution for monitoring apple freshness and quality during sorting and distribution processes, with expanded research on sugar content and acidity expected to accelerate commercialization.