Study on Comprehensive Utilization of Crop Straw and Spatial Distribution of Cattle and Sheep in China: 1978–2023

This study aims to assess how the supply of straw feed in China has changed over time and how this affects cattle and sheep farming. This paper takes the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China as basic units. Based on the grass-to-grain ratios of different crops, the analysis includes estimating the theoretical supply of straw feed, evaluating its livestock carrying capacity, and examining the spatial distribution of supply and demand. From 1978 to 2023, the adaptability of the supply and demand of crop straws has shown a significant upward trend, but the overall adaptability is still low. Differences in the spatial layout of agriculture and animal husbandry have led to the emergence of advantageous areas for the allocation of the supply and demand of straw feeds, which are shifting from the east to the west and from the south to the north and concentrating from the planting areas to the livestock breeding areas. This study finds that climate warming has shifted the centroid of theoretical straw supply northward, resulting in higher straw–livestock compatibility in agriculturally developed regions but lower compatibility in unbalanced agro-pastoral zones, primarily due to high transport costs for straw and roughage, which constrain sustainable agro-pastoral circular development. Therefore, it is recommended that all countries (regions) actively implement the “Straw-to-Meat” policy in agriculturally advanced zones, while proactively adapting to climate warming by optimizing agro-pastoral spatial planning and exploring alternatives to roughage or expanding feed grain cultivation.