Risk Perception and Management Strategies Among Ecuadorian Cocoa Farmers: A Comprehensive Analysis of Attitudes and Decisions

Cocoa farming in Ecuador faces significant challenges due to market volatility and climate-related risks, necessitating effective risk management strategies. This study investigates the interplay between risk attitudes (RAs), risk perceptions (RPs), and risk management strategies (RMSs) among Ecuadorian cocoa farmers, examining how these factors influence decision-making under uncertainty. Combining experimental lotteries to assess risk and loss aversion, with partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) to analyze survey data, we explore how farmers prioritize perceived impacts over probabilities in their risk assessments. The findings reveal that farmers focus more on mitigating severe perceived impacts, such as price drops and production losses due to adverse weather, than on probability-based strategies, commonly opting for diversification and nonagricultural activities. These results highlight the importance of designing policies and tools that address the perceived impacts of risks, align support with farmers’ needs, and improve access to financial resources and tailored insurances. This approach offers valuable insights for policymakers aiming to enhance cocoa farmers’ resilience in volatile agricultural environments.