Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Net Ecosystem Productivity and Its Influencing Factors in Northwest China, 1982–2022

The carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems is a crucial component of the global carbon cycle, and drought is increasingly recognized as a significant stressor impacting their carbon sink function. Net ecosystem productivity (NEP), which is a key indicator of carbon sink capacity, is closely related to vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP), derived using the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model. However, there is limited research on desert grassland ecosystems, which offer unique insights due to their long-term data series. The relationship between NEP and drought is complex and can vary depending on the intensity, duration, and frequency of drought events. NEP is an indicator of carbon exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and it is closely related to vegetation productivity and soil respiration. Drought is known to negatively affect vegetation growth, reducing its ability to sequester carbon, thus decreasing NEP. Prolonged drought conditions can lead to a decrease in vegetation NPP, which in turn affects the overall carbon balance of ecosystems. This study employs the improved CASA model, using remote sensing, climate, and land use data to estimate vegetation NPP in desert grasslands and then calculate NEP. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on precipitation and evapotranspiration data, was used to assess the wetness and dryness of the desert grassland ecosystem, allowing for an investigation of the relationship between vegetation productivity and drought. The results show that (1) from 1982 to 2022, the distribution pattern of NEP in the Inner Mongolia desert grassland ecosystem showed a gradual increase from southwest to northeast, with a multi-year average value of 29.41 gCm⁻ 2 . The carbon sink area (NEP > 0) accounted for 67.99%, and the overall regional growth rate was 0.2364 gcm −2 yr −1 , In addition, the area with increasing NEP accounted for 35.40% of the total area ( p < 0.05); (2) using the SPEI to characterize drought changes in the Inner Mongolia desert grassland ecosystems, the region as a whole was mainly affected by light drought. Spatially, the cumulative effect was primarily driven by short-term drought (1–2 months), covering 54.5% of the total area, with a relatively fast response rate; (3) analyzing the driving factors of NEP using the Geographical detector, the results showed that annual average precipitation had the greatest influence on NEP in the Inner Mongolian desert grassland ecosystem. Interaction analysis revealed that the combined effect of most factors was stronger than the effect of a single factor, and the interaction of two factors had a higher explanatory power for NEP. This study demonstrates that NEP in the desert grassland ecosystem has increased significantly from 1982 to 2022, and that drought, as characterized by the SPEI, has a clear influence on vegetation productivity, particularly in areas experiencing short-term drought. Future research could focus on extending this analysis to other desert ecosystems and incorporating additional environmental variables to further refine the understanding of carbon dynamics under drought conditions. This research is significant for improving our understanding of carbon cycling in desert grasslands, which are sensitive to climate variability and drought. The insights gained can help inform strategies for mitigating climate change and enhancing carbon sequestration in arid regions.