Ecological Risk Assessment and Source Analysis of Heavy Metals in Farmland Soil in Yangchun City Based on APCS-MLR and Geostatistics

Yangchun City, a typical polymetallic ore distribution area in Guangdong Province (China), was selected as the research region to study the content, distribution, source, and possible impacts of heavy metals (HMs) (Arsenic: As; Cadmium: Cd; Chromium: Cr; Copper: Cu; Mercury: Hg; Nickel: Ni; Lead: Pb; and Zinc: Zn) on the farmland soil of this City. According to our findings, the spatial distribution of HMs in Yangchun City shows higher concentrations in the north and southeast and lower in the west and other regions. Metal content in some sampled sites of the agricultural land exceeded the soil pollution risk screening values, particularly As (7.5%), Cd (12%), Cu (4%), Hg (14.5%), and Pb (3%). Additionally, the average content of As, Cu, Cd, Pb, Hg, and Zn from the studied areas surpassed the soil background value of Guangdong Province for all metals. The absolute principal component score-multiple linear regression (APCS-MLR) was used to identify potential sources of HMs in the soil samples. There are three potential sources identified by the model: traffic emissions, natural sources, and agricultural activities, accounting for 28.16%, 16.68%, and 14.42%, respectively. Based on the ecological risk assessment, the potential ecological risk ( E r i = 310.77), Nemero pollution index ( PN = 2.27), and multiple possible effect concentration quality ( mPECQs = 0.23) indicated that the extent of heavy metal pollution in the soil samples was moderate. Three sources were identified: traffic emissions, natural sources, and agricultural activities. We suggest that by combining the above results, a monitoring and early warning system focused on Cd and Hg can be established. The system could utilize geographic information systems and remote sensing technologies to achieve dynamic monitoring and prediction of pollution. Regular testing of soils and sustainable management practices are also recommended to control and remediate contamination.