End of the Cage Age? A Study on the Impacts of the Transition from Cages on the EU Laying Hen Sector

This paper’s main objective is to assess the impacts of the ban on cages for housing laying hens, planned by the European Commission to raise animal welfare standards beyond the level set in the current legislation. The farm-level economic assessments of the ban were carried out in three stages: farm surveys and expert consultations, farm-level analyses, and aggregation to the EU-27 egg production sector. Four scenarios were constructed. All financial estimates were conducted with fixed prices from the year 2021 for which the reference scenario was built. Alternative hen-housing systems were barn (Voliera), free range, and organic. Until now, more than 50% of laying hens in the EU have already been transferred to alternative systems. The remaining part is subject to the transition. The basic assumptions included a reduction in yields due to the required lower densities and specifics of the production systems. A factor strongly differentiating the scenarios is likelihood of exists form the sector, as declared in the survey by many farmers, mainly those reaching retirement age without successors and keeping relatively small flocks of hens. The introduction of the ban will cause a decrease in egg production, varying between the scenarios. Substantial investments will be required within the range of 2–3.2 billion EUR, depending on the scenario.