IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jagris/v13y2023i5p980-d1136064.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wheat Import Demand in Mexico: Evidence of Quantile Cointegration

Author

Listed:
  • Ramón Valencia-Romero

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía, Unidad Profesional Lázaro Cárdenas, Alcaldía Miguel Hidalgo, Plan de Agua Prieta 66, Ciudad de México 11350, Mexico)

  • José C. Trejo-García

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía, Unidad Profesional Lázaro Cárdenas, Alcaldía Miguel Hidalgo, Plan de Agua Prieta 66, Ciudad de México 11350, Mexico)

  • Humberto Ríos-Bolívar

    (Instituto Politécnico Nacional, Escuela Superior de Economía, Unidad Profesional Lázaro Cárdenas, Alcaldía Miguel Hidalgo, Plan de Agua Prieta 66, Ciudad de México 11350, Mexico)

Abstract

The decline in the production of basic grains in Mexico has intensified since the 1990s, with wheat (Triticum) being no exception. This reduction was covered by the growth of Mexican imports. The objective of this research was to analyze the import demand function for wheat from 1994, the time of the initiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model revealed the change in the conditional mean import demand using variations in its determinants, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE for its Spanish acronym) and the real exchange rate, as proxy variables for income and relative prices, respectively. However, the conditional mean is insufficient in a context of increasing foreign purchases of wheat and outliers. Through a quantile extension of the ARDL model (with the acronym QARDL), we then found that the change in imports, and the relevance of the determinants, differed across import levels. In the short term, the upper quantiles of wheat imports responded mainly to their history and the exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the long term, the IGAE and the exchange rate influenced the lower quantiles of imports. We conclude that there was an asymmetric response in the conditional distribution of imports. In other words, this study provides evidence of short- and long-term location asymmetry in wheat imports under NAFTA. The research contributes to the econometric study of basic grain imports. For the first time, the QARDL model is used to understand the relationship between imports and their determinants, and the circumstances under which its use is recommended are indicated. Therefore, a new econometric method is used, avoiding the linearity of the ARDL model, and thus allowing a detailed and accurate estimation of the demand for imports. Consequently, the estimates and conclusions obtained will undoubtedly help economic agents to make more efficient decisions, from national and international investors to government agencies responsible for the promotion of Mexican agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramón Valencia-Romero & José C. Trejo-García & Humberto Ríos-Bolívar, 2023. "Wheat Import Demand in Mexico: Evidence of Quantile Cointegration," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-19, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:5:p:980-:d:1136064
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/5/980/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0472/13/5/980/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cho, Jin Seo & Kim, Tae-hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2015. "Quantile cointegration in the autoregressive distributed-lag modeling framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 281-300.
    2. repec:cup:cbooks:9781108422536 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 1, pages 3-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    4. Mishra, Shekhar & Sharif, Arshian & Khuntia, Sashikanta & Meo, Muhammad Saeed & Rehman Khan, Syed Abdul, 2019. "Does oil prices impede Islamic stock indices? Fresh insights from wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 292-304.
    5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    6. Uwe Hassler & Jürgen Wolters, 2006. "Autoregressive distributed lag models and cointegration," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(1), pages 59-74, March.
    7. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, September.
    8. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Koenker, Roger & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1982. "Robust Tests for Heteroscedasticity Based on Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 43-61, January.
    11. Andrew B. Bernard & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2007. "Comparative Advantage and Heterogeneous Firms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(1), pages 31-66.
    12. Yeaple, Stephen Ross, 2005. "A simple model of firm heterogeneity, international trade, and wages," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 1-20, January.
    13. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    14. Brooks,Chris, 2019. "Introductory Econometrics for Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108436823.
    15. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    16. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    17. Jose Romero, 2012. "Evolucion de la demanda Mexicana de importaciones: 1940-2009," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 9(1), pages 7-34, Enero-Jun.
    18. Huang, Wen-Hsiu, 2015. "The determinants of household electricity consumption in Taiwan: Evidence from quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 120-133.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Laura Onofri, 2024. "Application of Econometrics in Agricultural Production," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-2, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Melitz, Marc J. & Redding, Stephen J., 2014. "Heterogeneous Firms and Trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 1-54, Elsevier.
    2. H. Bayram Irhan & Nur Dilbaz Alacahan & Levent Korap, 2011. "An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 14(1), pages 38-61, May.
    3. Güzin Bayar, 2018. "Estimating export equations: a survey of the literature," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 629-672, March.
    4. Georgios Bertsatos & Plutarchos Sakellaris & Mike G. Tsionas, 2022. "Extensions of the Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) bounds testing procedure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 605-634, February.
    5. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    6. Pedro Hugo Clavijo Cortes, 2017. "Balance comercial y volatilidad del tipo de cambio nominal: Un estudio de series de tiempo para Colombia," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 11(1), pages 37-58, June.
    7. Sulaiman, Saidu & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Is liberalizing finance the game in town for Nigeria ?," MPRA Paper 95569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Muhammad Javid & Frederick L. Joutz, 2022. "Saudi Non-Oil Exports before and after COVID-19: Historical Impacts of Determinants and Scenario Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-38, February.
    9. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 197-261, Elsevier.
    10. Sebastian Kripfganz & Daniel C. Schneider, 2020. "Response Surface Regressions for Critical Value Bounds and Approximate p‐values in Equilibrium Correction Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(6), pages 1456-1481, December.
    11. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2012. "The Empirics of Firm Heterogeneity and International Trade," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 283-313, July.
    12. Michael Koch, 2016. "Skills, Tasks and the Scarcity of Talent in a Global Economy," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 536-563, August.
    13. Baldwin, Richard E. & Robert-Nicoud, Frederic, 2008. "Trade and growth with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 21-34, January.
    14. Kristian Behrens & Giordano Mion & Yasusada Murata & Jens Südekum, 2014. "Trade, Wages, And Productivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1305-1348, November.
    15. Khurram Ashfaq Baluch & Syed Kalim Hyder Bukhari, 2012. "Price and Income Elasticity of Imports: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Working Paper Series 48, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    16. Md Shahiduzzaman & Allan Layton & Khorshed Alam, 2015. "On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 281-304, November.
    17. Chen, Ping-Yu & Chen, Bo-Yu & Tsai, Pei-Hui & Chen, Chi-Chung, 2015. "Evaluating the impacts of a carbon tax on imported forest products—evidence from Taiwan," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 45-52.
    18. Carlo Perroni & Davide Suverato, 2023. "Skills scarcity and export intensity," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(2), pages 719-757, May.
    19. Forgenie, David & Khoiriyah, Nikmatul, 2023. "Analyzing Food Import Demand in Indonesia: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 11(1), January.
    20. Antonio Navas & Antonella Nocco, 2021. "Trade liberalization, selection, and technology adoption with vertical linkages," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 979-1012, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jagris:v:13:y:2023:i:5:p:980-:d:1136064. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.