MODIS NDVI Multi-Temporal Analysis Confirms Farmer Perceptions on Seasonality Variations Affecting Apple Orchards in Kinnaur, Himachal Pradesh

Apple cultivation in the Kinnaur district of the northern Indian State of Himachal Pradesh faces challenges from climatic changes and developmental activities. Farmers in the neighboring districts have already faced a major loss of livelihood due to seasonal changes. Therefore, it is important to study the extent of seasonal variations in the apple growing locations of this region. This study makes that attempt by assessing seasonality variations during a 15-year period from 2004 to 2018 when maximum construction activities occurred in this region. The study uses geospatial and statistical techniques in addition to farmer perceptions obtained during a field visit in November 2019. A temporal pattern using a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) was studied for seven apple-growing locations in the district. The results show high seasonal variations and reduced snowfall at lower elevations, resulting in less chilling hours, which are necessary for the healthy growth of apples. The normalized difference snow index (NDSI) and rainfall show a high correlation with apple growth. Local farmers are unprepared for future seasonal disturbances, as they lack early warning systems, insurance for apple crops, and alternative livelihood options.