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Декомпозиция Темпов Роста Ввп В 2016-2019 Гг

Author

Listed:
  • Drobyshevsky Sergey

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Kazakova Maria

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

: Расчеты по декомпозиции темпов роста ВВП РФ за период с 1999 по 2015 гг. и прогноза МЭР на 2016–2019 гг. показывают, что в текущих условиях единственным источником роста экономики могут быть конъюнктурные составляющие, связанные с выходом в положительную фазу внутреннего бизнеса-цикла. Однако их недостаточно для достижения темпов роста в 4% и более. Для этого требуется серьезное повышение и структурных темпов роста экономики. В частности, при сохранении на текущем уровне совокупной факторной производительности необходимо дополнительное привлечение в экономику трудовых ресурсов в размере около 4,5 млн человек, а также дополнительные 40 трлн руб. инвестиций в основной капитал в целом за период 2016–2018 гг.

Suggested Citation

  • Drobyshevsky Sergey & Kazakova Maria, 2016. "Декомпозиция Темпов Роста Ввп В 2016-2019 Гг," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 6, pages 21-25, июнь.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:ruserr:ruserr-2016-6-643
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Декомпозиция; темпы роста капитала;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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