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Decomposition Of Gdp Growth Rates In 2016-2019: In Expectation Of Structural Changes

Author

Listed:
  • Drobyshevsky Sergey

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • Kazakova Maria

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

Calculations of decomposition of the RF GDP growth rates in 1999–2015 and the MED’s forecast for 2016–2019 show that in current conditions cyclical components related to the domestic business cycle’s entering the positive phase are the only source of economic growth. However, they alone are insufficient to ensure growth rates of 4% or more. To achieve that, it is important to increase structural economic growth rates, too. In particular, with the aggregate factor productivity to be retained at the present level it is necessary to a ract to the economy further labor resources of about 4.5m people and Rb 40 trillion worth of additional investments in capital assets in 2016–2018.

Suggested Citation

  • Drobyshevsky Sergey & Kazakova Maria, 2016. "Decomposition Of Gdp Growth Rates In 2016-2019: In Expectation Of Structural Changes," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 6, pages 18-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:recdev-2016-6-655
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    File Function: Revised version, 2016
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; Russian Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General

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