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Evaluating the Role of Global Factors in GDP Nowcasting
[Анализ Важности Глобальных Факторов Для Наукастинга Ввп]

Author

Listed:
  • Konstantin S. Rybak

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

This work shows that use of more than two global factors in standard factor-augmented model leads to significantly better nowcasts of Russian GDP growth rate. Global inflation and nominal factors are available for estimation almost in real-time which leads to earlier and better nowcasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Konstantin S. Rybak, 2023. "Evaluating the Role of Global Factors in GDP Nowcasting [Анализ Важности Глобальных Факторов Для Наукастинга Ввп]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 12, pages 18-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:r2399
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP nowcasting; factor model;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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