IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gai/recdev/r2344.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Low Inflation Allowed the Russian Central Bank to Leave the Key Rate Unchanged, but Inflationary Pressure Will Grow
[Низкая Инфляция Позволила Цб Рф Не Менять Ключевую Ставку, Но Инфляционное Давление Будет Расти]

Author

Listed:
  • Yury N. Perevyshin

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Pavel V. Trunin

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

Analysts’ consensus-forecast and the financial market’s expectations were in line with the Central Bank of Russia’s decision of April 28, 2023 to leave the key rate unchanged at the level of 7.5% annually. However, the message about the further direction of the monetary policy has become tougher as compared with the previous press-release, reflecting the higher inflationary pressure. Based on results of April 2023, the annual inflation rate (over the past 12 months) slowed down to 2.3% with the level of consumer prices increasing by 0.38% in April which is equal to 3.4% year-on-year with seasonal adjustment. In March-April, a higher inflationary pressure remained in services and started to grow in non-food products. From June, annual inflation will speed up and amount, by our estimates, to about 6% annually.

Suggested Citation

  • Yury N. Perevyshin & Pavel V. Trunin, 2023. "Low Inflation Allowed the Russian Central Bank to Leave the Key Rate Unchanged, but Inflationary Pressure Will Grow [Низкая Инфляция Позволила Цб Рф Не Менять Ключевую Ставку, Но Инфляционное Давле," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 6, pages 4-8, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:r2344
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/recdev/r2344.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; inflation expectations; monetary policy; key rate; Bank of Russia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:r2344. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Olga Beloborodova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gaidaru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.