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Estimating the Decline in Russia's GDP Due to the Trade Restrictions with the EU, the US, Great Britain and Japan
[Оценка Потерь Ввп Из-За Ограничения Странами Ес, Сша, Великобританией И Японией Торговли С Россией]

Author

Listed:
  • Andrey V. Zubarev

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

  • Mariya A. Kirillova

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration)

Abstract

The introduction of international economic sanctions against Russia in February-March 2022 will have a strong negative impact on Russian output – both in the short and long term. The disruption of logistics chains, the ban on attracting external financing, statements by major Western companies about the cessation of investment in Russia and the closure of international projects involving Russia are expected to lead to a reduction in domestic output. The prolonged ban on imports of high technology and equipment to the country will also have a negative impact on output. In addition, the plans of some states to gradually refuse to buy Russian crude oil, gas and coal may severely reduce export revenues. This article presents scenario projections of output losses in the Russian economy as a result of varying levels of reduction in external demand and supply from Russia’s key trading partners within the framework of the global vector autoregression model.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey V. Zubarev & Mariya A. Kirillova, 2022. "Estimating the Decline in Russia's GDP Due to the Trade Restrictions with the EU, the US, Great Britain and Japan [Оценка Потерь Ввп Из-За Ограничения Странами Ес, Сша, Великобританией И Японией То," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 8, pages 21-23, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:r2267
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    international economic sanctions; Russian GDP; scenario projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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