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2016-2017 Forecast: Russia’S Recession Continues

Author

Listed:
  • S. Drobyshevsky

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • V. Petrenko

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • M. Turuntseva

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

  • M. Khromov

    (Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

Preliminary data on Russia’s economic results of 2015, as well as the current trends in the global energy market, give grounds for revising down possible scenarios for Russia’s economy in 2016–2017. For instance, a scenario of yearly average oil prices staying at $35 a barrel in 2016 is now the baseline scenario, whereas $50 a barrel is considered optimistic (Russia’s 2016 budget was made on the assumption of $50 a barrel). Simulation of the key macroeconomic indicators in 2016–2017 under the selected scenarios have revealed that Russia’s recession will continue during the projection period, and growth can only be expected if oil prices are steadily above $50–55 a barrel.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Drobyshevsky & V. Petrenko & M. Turuntseva & M. Khromov, 2016. "2016-2017 Forecast: Russia’S Recession Continues," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 2, pages 10-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:679
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian Economy;

    JEL classification:

    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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