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Analysis Of Recommendations About Expected Prices Of Ibex 35 Using Fuzzy Numbers

Author

Listed:
  • Ravioli, Mario

    (Department of Business Management. Faculty of Business and Economics. Universitat Rovira i Virgili. Av. Universitat, 1, E-43204 Reus, Spain.)

  • Fabregat-Aibar, Laura

    (Department of Business Management. Faculty of Business and Economics. Universitat Rovira i Virgili. Av. Universitat, 1, E-43204 Reus, Spain.)

Abstract

Predicting the trend of prices of shares is a recurring theme in the financial literature. The predictability allows us to anticipate market movements and therefore to generate higher returns than the market average. Much of the Economics and Finance media include expert predictions on the evolution of prices, at least statements in terms of rising or falling. These predictions entail recommendations that undoubtedly affect the market trend. In this paper, we use Fuzzy Numbers to model these opinions and value their incidence and predictive capacity regarding the Spanish stock market, in particular the Ibex 35. At the same time, we subject to analysis the validity of a form of counter-expertise. Our results show that according to the experts’ opinions we can find undervalued and overvalued shares in the Spanish market and that the majority of them have a bullish perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Ravioli, Mario & Fabregat-Aibar, Laura, 2015. "Analysis Of Recommendations About Expected Prices Of Ibex 35 Using Fuzzy Numbers," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 0(1), pages 51-70, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fzy:fuzeco:v:xx:y:2015:i:1:p:51-70
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    triangular fuzzy numbers; linguistic values; counter-expertise; prediction of experts; recommendations; Ibex 35;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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