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Capital Flight from Russia and Possible Sources of Financing Budget Expenditures

Author

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  • Pavel E. Zhukov

    (Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation)

Abstract

The article considers the problems of capital flight from Russia in current conditions and the related problems of financing budget expenditures. The difference between capital export and capital flight, which occurs in conditions of extremely high risks or unfavorable investment climate, is substantiated. The balance of payments of Russia in 2022 is analyzed, and it is substantiated that in the current situation capital flows are largely capital flight from political and economic risks. The author estimates the size of capital flight from Russia in 2022 (approximately $232 billion), and concludes that the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings in modern conditions can be replaced by more flexible control measures. Further, the paper analyzes a set of complex problems of financing the federal budget expenditures of Russia in the current conditions. Three possible mechanisms of financing the budget deficit (or additional expenditures) are considered: at the expense of new public debt, at the expense of the National Welfare Fund and sale of state assets, as well as at the expense of new emergency taxes. It is concluded that attraction of new sources for government borrowing is practically impossible without a significant increase in interest expenditures. At the end of the paper, for the recovery of the Russian economy, there is a proposal to introduce a new flexible tax on the export of capital, which can create incentives for investment in the Russian economy and solve the problems of financing federal budget expenditures in modern conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Pavel E. Zhukov, 2023. "Capital Flight from Russia and Possible Sources of Financing Budget Expenditures," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 27-42, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:230602:p:27-42
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-6-27-42
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2005. "The Trilemma in History: Tradeoffs Among Exchange Rates, Monetary Policies, and Capital Mobility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 423-438, August.
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    3. Alexander S. Bulatov, 2022. "MNEs and capital flight: The case of Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 8(2), pages 174-188, July.
    4. Olivier Blanchard, 2021. "Currency Wars, Coordination, and Capital Controls," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Steven J Davis & Edward S Robinson & Bernard Yeung (ed.), THE ASIAN MONETARY POLICY FORUM Insights for Central Banking, chapter 4, pages 134-157, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Peter J. Buckley, 2018. "Internalisation Theory and Outward Direct Investment by Emerging Market Multinationals," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 195-224, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foreign direct investment; capital flight; capital export; budget revenues; budget deficit; emergency tax;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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