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Regional Budget Revenues in Early 2022: Main Trends and Risk Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow 107031, Russian Federation; Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russian Federation)

  • Sofiia R. Borisova

    (Economic Expert Group, Moscow 107031, Russian Federation; Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russian Federation)

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the impact of 2022 external shocks on Russia’s sub-federal budget revenues and to identify the main revenue side risks that should be considered if sanctions pressure increases. The relevance of the study is determined by the time factor: less than six months have passed since the beginning of the crisis. The authors examine the dynamics of regional budget revenues in 2022 as a whole and provide a detailed qualitative analysis of the situation in eleven regions, selected in accordance with the dynamics of their budget revenues in March-June 2022 (soon after the introduction of sanctions). The analysis shows that regional budget revenues have already begun to respond to the sanctions, however, the external shocks manifest themselves in different regions with different speed. It was revealed that the most vulnerable to the crisis is the CIT, while the PIT is relatively stable. The main risk indicators for regional budget revenues are the share of the extractive sector in GRP, the structure of reginal foreign trade (both by commodity and by country) and the state anti-crisis support of SMEs.

Suggested Citation

  • Aleksandra L. Osmolovskaya-Suslina & Sofiia R. Borisova, 2022. "Regional Budget Revenues in Early 2022: Main Trends and Risk Factors," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 6, pages 25-43, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:220602:p:25-43
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2022-6-25-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. L. V. Mazur & A. E. Monashova, 2021. "Tax Revenues in a Pandemic: Decline or Growth in the Future?," Administrative Consulting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management., issue 8.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavel V. Stroev & Olga V. Pivovarova & Khasanbi V. Sheozhev & Anna I. Dudnik, 2023. "Regions with Low Financial Sustainability: Analysis and Enhancement of Development," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 1, pages 26-44, February.
    2. Igor Yu. Arlashkin, 2023. "On the Possibilities of Tax Decentralization in Russia," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 78-90, June.

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      More about this item

      Keywords

      taxes; budget revenues; regional budget; budget risks;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy
      • H24 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Personal Income and Other Nonbusiness Taxes and Subsidies
      • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
      • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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