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Estimation of the Government Expenditures Multiplier in the Republic of Armenia

Author

Listed:
  • Samvel S. Lazaryan

    (Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia)

  • Maria A. Elkina

    (Financial Research Institute, Moscow 127006, Russia; National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow 101000, Russia)

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to estimate government expenditure multiplier in the Republic of Armenia via a SVAR model. The model is evaluated using the data over the period from 2004 to 2017 and accounts for a structural break, which occurred in the year 2009. In addition, it controls for the dynamics of copper prices and output of the Russian Federation. The results indicate that the response of output to the government expenditure shock is quite strong right after the discretionary change of fiscal policy. The multiplier reaches its peak on impact with the estimated value about 3. However, there is a substantial uncertainty regarding the exact value of the multiplier and the 95 % lower bound estimate is only 0.8. Moreover, the value of the government expenditure multiplier decreases over time rather quickly. In the medium term the impact of the government expenditure shock on output is negligible. Overall, the authors conclude that government expenditure policy can be used successfully to stabilize the dynamics of output in the event of substantial recession or boom. Estimates obtained in this study do not contradict the results of previous researches dedicated to the evaluation of fiscal multipliers in the Republic of Armenia.

Suggested Citation

  • Samvel S. Lazaryan & Maria A. Elkina, 2018. "Estimation of the Government Expenditures Multiplier in the Republic of Armenia," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 4, pages 21-31, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:180402:p:21-31
    DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2018-4-21-31
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
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    6. Sebastian Gechert & Henner Will, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers: A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 97-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government expenditure multiplier; fiscal multiplier; government expenditure; fiscal policy; SVAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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