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Scenarios with Probabilities for Financial Forecasting

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  • Roy Batchelor

Abstract

Several commentaries on the "better crystal ball," this being the third, clarify the objectives of scenario development, examine the distinction between risk and uncertainty, and lay out important obstacles to the attachment of probabilities to uncertain events. The Scoblic-Tetlock response to the commentaries will be printed in the next issue of Foresight, 2021:Q4. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2021

Suggested Citation

  • Roy Batchelor, 2021. "Scenarios with Probabilities for Financial Forecasting," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 62, pages 40-42, Q3.
    • Handle: RePEc:for:ijafaa:y:2021:i:62:p:40-42
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