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Loan-Delinquency Projections for COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Grey Gordon
  • John Bailey Jones
  • Jessica Sackett Romero

Abstract

The authors forecast the effects of COVID-19 on loan-delinquency rates under three scenarios for unemployment and house-price movements. Absent policy interventions, the model predicts peak loan-delinquency rates of 2.8 percent in the favorable scenario, 8.1 percent in the severe scenario, and 3.9 percent in the baseline scenario. The greatest reductions in delinquency are achieved through home mortgage forbearance and student loan forbearance, with fiscal transfers playing a smaller role.

Suggested Citation

  • Grey Gordon & John Bailey Jones & Jessica Sackett Romero, 2020. "Loan-Delinquency Projections for COVID-19," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 20-05, pages 1-4, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedreb:88294
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Covid-19 > Economic consequences > Finance and credit

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    Cited by:

    1. Nigmonov, Asror & Shams, Syed & Alam, Khorshed, 2024. "Liquidity risk in FinTech lending: Early impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the P2P lending market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Asror Nigmonov & Syed Shams, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic risk and probability of loan default: evidence from marketplace lending market," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-28, December.
    3. Özlem Dursun-de Neef, H. & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2021. "COVID-19 and lending responses of European banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    loan-delinquency; COVID-19;

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