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Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict? Random Shocks and Business Cycles

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Abstract

Economists are like doctors, not soothsayers. They can't predict recessions, but they can help us understand why one is happening. And that can make all the difference for policymaking.

Suggested Citation

  • Thorsten Drautzburg, 2019. "Why Are Recessions So Hard to Predict? Random Shocks and Business Cycles," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 4(1), pages 1-8, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpei:00034
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    File URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/economic-insights/2019/q1/eiq119-predicting-recessions.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Orlando & Mario Sportelli, 2021. "Growth and Cycles as a Struggle: Lotka–Volterra, Goodwin and Phillips," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Giuseppe Orlando & Alexander N. Pisarchik & Ruedi Stoop (ed.), Nonlinearities in Economics, chapter 0, pages 191-208, Springer.
    2. Tommi P. Laiho, 2020. "How to Fix Coordination Lags in the Keynesian Macroeconomical Intervention?," Business and Management Studies, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 72-76, September.
    3. Tara M. Sinclair, 2019. "Continuities and Discontinuities in Economic Forecasting," Working Papers 2019-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.

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    Keywords

    predictability; recession;

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