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Rethinking the value of initial claims as a forecasting tool

Author

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  • Margaret M. McConnell

Abstract

The weekly numbers on initial claims for unemployment insurance convey key information about the labor market. But how reliable are claims in predicting changes in the much anticipated monthly employment report? According to a simple forecasting model, claims consistently send an accurate signal about employment during recessions but not during expansions.

Suggested Citation

  • Margaret M. McConnell, 1998. "Rethinking the value of initial claims as a forecasting tool," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Nov).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:1998:i:nov:n:v.4no.11
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John Carter Braxton, 2013. "Revisiting the use of initial jobless claims as a labor market indicator," Research Working Paper RWP 13-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    2. Emara, Noha & Ma, Jinpeng, 2019. "An Analysis of the Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper 99310, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. William T. Gavin & Kevin L. Kliesen, 2002. "Unemployment insurance claims and economic activity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(May), pages 15-28.
    4. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 85(Mar), pages 47-61.

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