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Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy

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  • Alisdair McKay
  • Johannes F. Wieland

Abstract

The prevailing neo-Wicksellian view holds that the central bank's objective is to track the natural rate of interest (r*), which itself is largely exogenous to monetary policy. We challenge this view using a fixed-cost model of durable consumption demand, in which expansionary monetary policy prompts households to accelerate purchases of durable goods. This yields an intertemporal trade-off in aggregate demand as encouraging households to increase durable holdings today leaves fewer households acquiring durables going forward. Interest rates must be kept low to support demand going forward, so accommodative monetary policy today reduces r* in the future. We show that this mechanism is quantitatively important in explaining the persistently low level of real interest rates and r* after the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, . "Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:89902
    DOI: 10.21034/sr.622
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    2. Reiter Michael & Sveen Tommy & Weinke Lutz, 2023. "Idiosyncratic Shocks, Lumpy Investment and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1037-1055, June.
    3. Anthony Brassil, 2022. "The Consequences of Low Interest Rates for the Australian Banking Sector," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2022-04, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Dec 2022.
    4. Fabio Bertolotti & Alessandro Gavazza & Andrea Lanteri, 2023. "Dynamics of Expenditures on Durable Goods: The Role of New-Product Quality," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1641-1656.
    5. Boris Chafwehe, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Consumption Dynamics, and the Secondary Market for Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 202-243, April.
    6. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 2022. "Stabilization with fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Alisdair McKay & Christian K. Wolf, . "What Can Time-Series Regressions Tell Us About Policy Counterfactuals?," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    8. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2023. "(In)Stability of the relationship between relative expenditure and prices of durable and non-durable goods," MPRA Paper 117688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Marius Clemens & Werner Röger, 2022. "Durable Consumption, Limited VAT Pass-Through and Stabilization Effects of Temporary VAT Changes," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2004, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Brianti, Marco & Cormun, Vito, 2023. "Expectation-Driven Boom-Bust Cycles," Working Papers 2023-4, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    11. Thiago Revil T. Ferreira & Daniel Ostry & John Rogers, 2023. "Firm Financial Conditions and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-037, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Acurio Vásconez, Verónica & Damette, Olivier & Shanafelt, David W., 2023. "Macroepidemics and unconventional monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    13. Jin Cao & Chao Cui & Valeriya Dinger & Martin B. Holm & Shulong Kang, 2022. "Identifying the depreciation rate of durables from marginal spending responses," Working Paper 2022/1, Norges Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Durable goods; Interest rates;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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