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Transition to FDI openness: reconciling theory and evidence

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  • Ellen R. McGrattan

Abstract

Empirical studies quantifying the economic effects of increased foreign direct investment (FDI) have not provided conclusive evidence that they are positive, as theory predicts. This paper shows that the lack of empirical evidence is consistent with theory if countries are in transition to FDI openness. Anticipated welfare gains lead to temporary declines in domestic investment and employment. Also, growth measures miss some intangible FDI, which is expensed from company profits. The reconciliation of theory and evidence is accomplished with a multicountry dynamic general equilibrium model parameterized with data from a sample of 104 countries during 1980?2005. Although no systematic benefits of FDI openness are found, the model demonstrates that the eventual gains in growth and welfare can be huge, especially for small countries.

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  • Ellen R. McGrattan, . "Transition to FDI openness: reconciling theory and evidence," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:454
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Elgin, Ceyhun & Yucel, Emekcan, 2014. "Determinants of the weight for leisure in preferences," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-26.
    4. Alexios Anagnostopoulos & Orhan Erem Atesagaoglu & Elisa Faraglia & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment as a Determinant of Cross-Country Stock Market Comovement," Discussion Papers 1912, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Contessi, Silvio, 2015. "Multinational firms׳ entry and productivity: Some aggregate implications of firm-level heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 61-80.
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    7. Simeon Alder & David Lagakos & Lee Ohanian, 2014. "Competitive Pressure and the Decline of the Rust Belt: A Macroeconomic Analysis," NBER Working Papers 20538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. L. Kamran Bilir & Eduardo Morales, 2016. "Innovation in the Global Firm," NBER Working Papers 22160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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