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On the needed quantity of government debt

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  • Kathryn Birkeland
  • Edward C. Prescott

Abstract

People are enjoying longer retirement periods, and population growth is slowing and, in some countries, falling. In this article, we determine the implications of these demographic changes for the needed amount of government debt. If tax rates and the transfer share of gross national income (GNI) are both high, the needed debt is near zero. With such a system, however, huge deadweight losses are incurred as a result of the high tax rate on labor income. With a savings system, a large government debt to annual GNI ratio is needed. In a country with early retirement and no population growth, the needed government debt is as large as five times GNI, and welfare is as much as 24 percent higher in terms of lifetime consumption equivalents in the savings system relative to the tax-and-transfer system.

Suggested Citation

  • Kathryn Birkeland & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "On the needed quantity of government debt," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 31(Nov), pages 2-15.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:2007:i:nov:p:2-15:n:v.31no.1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2003. "Average Debt and Equity Returns: Puzzling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 392-397, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    2. Patrick Villieu, 2011. "Quel objectif pour la dette publique à moyen terme ?," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 103(3), pages 79-98.
    3. Scott Regifère MOUANDAT, 2021. "dette optimale au Gabon," Journal of Academic Finance, RED research unit, university of Gabes, Tunisia, vol. 12(1), pages 132-149, June.
    4. Hillebrand, Marten, 2011. "On the role of labor supply for the optimal size of Social Security," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1091-1105, July.
    5. Scott Régifère Mouandat, 2021. "Optimal debt in Gabon: an analysis in term of foreign currency compositions [La dette optimale au Gabon: une analyse en termes de composition en devises]," Post-Print hal-03326826, HAL.

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