IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedmqr/y2001ifallp2-13nv.25no.4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Money and interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Cyril Monnet
  • Warren E. Weber

Abstract

This study describes and reconciles two common, seemingly contradictory views about a key monetary policy relationship: that between money and interest rates. Data since 1960 for about 40 countries support the Fisher equation view, that these variables are positively related. But studies taking expectations into account support the liquidity effect view, that they are negatively related. A simple model incorporates both views and demonstrates that which view applies at any time depends on when the change in money occurs and how long the public expects it to last. A surprise money change that is not expected to change future money growth moves interest rates in the opposite direction; one that is expected to change future money growth moves interest rates in the same direction. The study also demonstrates that stating monetary policy as a rule for interest rates rather than money does not change the relationship between these variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Cyril Monnet & Warren E. Weber, 2001. "Money and interest rates," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Fall), pages 2-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:2001:i:fall:p:2-13:n:v.25no.4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr2541.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://minneapolisfed.org/research/qr/qr2541.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1998. "The liquidity effect and long-run neutrality," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 149-194, December.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    3. George T. McCandless & Warren E. Weber, 1995. "Some monetary facts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 19(Sum), pages 2-11.
    4. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Auray, Stéphane & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2019. "Episodes of war and peace in an estimated open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 203-249.
    2. Gutierrez, Pedro J., 2006. "Short-run and long-run effects of monetary policy in a general equilibrium model with bank reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 597-621, July.
    3. Andreas Schabert, "undated". "On the Equivalence of Money Growth and Interest Rate Policy," Working Papers 2003_6, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2003.
    4. Wai Ching Poon, 2010. "Augmented MCi: AN Indicator Of Monetary Policy Stance For ASEAN-5?," Monash Economics Working Papers 25-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    5. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Olaolu Richard Olayeni & Reza Sherafatian-Jahromi & Olofin Sodik Adejonwo, 2019. "Output Gap, Money Growth and Interest Rate in Japan: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 18(2), pages 171-184, December.
    6. von Thadden, Leopold, 2012. "Monetary policy rules in an OLG model with non-superneutral money," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 147-166.
    7. Pedro Gutierrez, 2004. "Money, prices and interest rates in a non-aggregate stochastic general equilibrium model," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 283-316.
    8. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2007. "Monetary policy, expected inflation and inflation risk premia," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 18/2007, Bank of Finland.
    9. Mark Ofoi & Parmendra Sharma, 2021. "Does the Money Multiplier Hold in Pacific Island Countries? The Case of Papua New Guinea," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-21, September.
    10. Auray, Stéphane & Fève, Patrick, 2003. "Are Monetary Models with Exogenous Money Growth Rule Able to Match the Taylor Rule?," IDEI Working Papers 231, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    11. Biswajit Maitra, 2017. "Monetary and fiscal factors in nominal interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under a deregulated regime," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    12. Biswajit Maitra, 2018. "Determinants of Nominal Interest Rates in India," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 265-288, March.
    13. Seok-Kyun Hur, 2005. "Money Growth and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11102, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Forgha Godfrey NJIMANTED & Daniel AKUME & Emmanuel Mbella MUKETE, 2016. "The Impact of Key Monetary Variables on the Economic Growth of the CEMAC Zone," Expert Journal of Economics, Sprint Investify, vol. 4(2), pages 54-67.
    16. Schabert, Andreas, 2009. "Money supply, macroeconomic stability, and the implementation of interest rate targets," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 333-344, June.
    17. Schabert, Andreas, 2005. "Money Supply and the Implementation of Interest Rate Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 5094, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2007. "Monetary policy, expected inflation and inflation risk premia," Research Discussion Papers 18/2007, Bank of Finland.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    2. Galí, Jordi, 2002. "New Perspectives on Monetary Policy, Inflation and the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 3210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bekaert, Geert & Hoerova, Marie & Lo Duca, Marco, 2013. "Risk, uncertainty and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(7), pages 771-788.
    4. Eric M. Leeper & Tao Zha, 2002. "Empirical analysis of policy interventions," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    5. Vallés Liberal, Javier & Viñals, José, 1999. "On the Real Effects of Monetary Policy: A Central Banker's View," CEPR Discussion Papers 2241, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Gutierrez, Pedro J., 2006. "Short-run and long-run effects of monetary policy in a general equilibrium model with bank reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 597-621, July.
    7. di Giovanni, Julian & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2008. "The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 341-361, March.
    8. Demary, Markus, 2009. "The Link between Output, Inflation, Monetary Policy and Housing Price Dynamics," MPRA Paper 15978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    10. Jean Boivin & Marc P. Giannoni, 2006. "Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(3), pages 445-462, August.
    11. Alexei Onatski & Noah Williams, 2010. "Empirical and policy performance of a forward‐looking monetary model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 145-176, January.
    12. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
    13. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika & Wei, Min, 2006. "What does the yield curve tell us about GDP growth?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 359-403.
    14. Sushant Acharya, 2017. "Costly Information, Planning Complementarities, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(4), pages 823-850, June.
    15. Oscar Jorda & Alan Taylor & Sanjay Singh, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 1307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Vargas-Silva, Carlos, 2008. "Monetary policy and the US housing market: A VAR analysis imposing sign restrictions," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 977-990, September.
    17. Ibrahim Chowdhury & Andreas Schabert, "undated". "Assessing Money Supply Rules," Working Papers 2003_9, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised May 2003.
    18. Ronald Schettkat & Rongrong Sun, 2009. "Nicht zu früh bremsen! - Der Einfluss der Geldpolitik auf die langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland und den USA-," Schumpeter Discussion Papers sdp09003, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    19. Michael T. Owyang, 2002. "Modeling Volcker as a non-absorbing state: agnostic identification of a Markov-switching VAR," Working Papers 2002-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    20. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2012. "Monetary Policy, Informality and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Developing Economy Vulnerable to External Shocks," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(4), pages 609-681.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedmqr:y:2001:i:fall:p:2-13:n:v.25no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kate Hansel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfrbmus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.