IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedlrv/y2011isepp303-324nv.93no.5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A foreign exchange intervention in an era of restraint

Author

Abstract

The Japanese yen appreciated strongly and rapidly against other major currencies in the wake of the massive March 11, 2011, Tohoku earthquake. High volatility and disorder in financial markets prompted the G-7 authorities to jointly intervene to weaken the yen. This episode resembled the two most recent G-7 coordinated interventions: the June 1998 effort to strengthen the yen and the September 2000 effort to strengthen the euro. Exchange rates reacted strongly and quickly to these three interventions, moving 3 to 4 percent in the desired direction within 30 minutes of the announcement and exhibiting lower volatility in the following days. G-7 authorities have used intervention very sparingly since 1995, yet the March 2011 policy action is a reminder that it can be used to calm markets and move the exchange rate in the desired direction. Intervention has become much less common but more successful.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "A foreign exchange intervention in an era of restraint," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(Sep), pages 303-324.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2011:i:sep:p:303-324:n:v.93no.5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://files.stlouisfed.org/files/htdocs/publications/review/11/09/303-324Neely.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kearns, Jonathan & Rigobon, Roberto, 2005. "Identifying the efficacy of central bank interventions: evidence from Australia and Japan," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 31-48, May.
    2. Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2008. "The coordination channel of foreign exchange intervention: A nonlinear microstructural analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 55-76, January.
    3. Michel Beine & Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely & Franz C. Palm, 2007. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility, its continuous and jump components," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 201-223.
    4. Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Lewis, Karen K., 1996. "Does foreign exchange intervention signal future monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 285-312, April.
    5. Edison, H.J., 1993. "The Effectiveness of Central-Bank Intervention: A Survey of the Litterature after 1982," Princeton Studies in International Economics 18, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
    6. Mark P. Taylor & Lucio Sarno, 2001. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: Is It Effective and, If So, How Does It Work?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 839-868, September.
    7. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2010. "U.S. Foreign-Exchange-Market Intervention and the Early Dollar Float: 1973 - 1981," NBER Working Papers 16647, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2003. "A transaction level study of the effects of central bank intervention on exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 331-352, December.
    9. Michael D. Bordo & Owen Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2007. "The historical origins of US exchange market intervention policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 109-132.
    10. Lewis, Karen K, 1995. "Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(2), pages 185-214, April.
    11. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 685-718.
    12. Jonathan Kearns & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identifying the Efficacy of Central Bank Interventions: Evidence from Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2003-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Central bank authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-25, February.
    14. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2015. "US Intervention and the Early Dollar Float, 1973–1981," NBER Chapters, in: Strained Relations: US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century, pages 210-267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Fischer, Andreas M & Zurlinden, Mathias, 1999. "Exchange Rate Effects of Central Bank Interventions: An Analysis of Transaction Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(458), pages 662-676, October.
    16. C. Fred Bergsten & John Williamson (ed.), 2003. "Dollar Overvaluation and the World Economy," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number sr16, April.
    17. Lewis, Karen K., 1989. "Can learning affect exchange-rate behavior? : The case of the dollar in the early 1980's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 79-100, January.
    18. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 1999. "Is Intervention a Signal of Future Monetary Policy? Evidece from the Federal Funds Futures Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(1), pages 54-69, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Foreign exchange intervention
      by ? in FRED blog on 2015-11-19 20:00:36
    2. Just say no to exchange rate intervention
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2019-08-05 12:19:24

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chien-Hsiu Lin & Shih-Kuei Lin & An-Chi Wu, 2015. "Foreign exchange option pricing in the currency cycle with jump risks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 755-789, May.
    2. Rasmus Fatum & Yohei Yamamoto, 2012. "Does foreign exchange intervention volume matter?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 115, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2015. "Epilogue: Foreign-Exchange-Market Operations in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Chapters, in: Strained Relations: US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century, pages 345-363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Miles Parker, 2018. "The Impact of Disasters on Inflation," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 21-48, April.
    6. Gardini, Laura & Radi, Davide & Schmitt, Noemi & Sushko, Iryna & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Currency manipulation and currency wars: Analyzing the dynamics of competitive central bank interventions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. Takaoka, Sumiko, 2018. "Convenience yield on government bonds and unconventional monetary policy in Japanese corporate bond spreads," MPRA Paper 86418, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2012. "The Federal Reserve as an Informed Foreign Exchange Trader: 1973–1995," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 127-160, March.
    9. Itamar Caspi & Amit Friedman & Sigal Ribon, 2022. "The Immediate Impact and Persistent Effect of FX Purchases on the Exchange Rate," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(5), pages 1-31, December.
    10. Dimitrios I. Vortelinos, 2015. "The Effect of Macro News on Volatility and Jumps," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 16(2), pages 425-447, November.
    11. De Bock, Reinout & de Carvalho Filho, Irineu, 2015. "The behavior of currencies during risk-off episodes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 218-234.
    12. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Large versus small foreign exchange interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-123.
    13. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Narita, Machiko & Nier, Erlend & Gelos, Gaston, 2021. "Leaning Against the Wind: An Empirical Cost-Benefit Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 15693, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Nakano, Shuhei & Hirata, Yoshito & Iwayama, Koji & Aihara, Kazuyuki, 2015. "Intra-day response of foreign exchange markets after the Tohoku-Oki earthquake," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 203-214.
    15. Ito, Takatoshi & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2020. "Japanese Foreign Exchange Interventions, 1971-2018: Estimating a Reaction Function Using the Best Proxy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2016. "Evaluation of the Federal Reserve's financial-crisis timeline," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 350-355.
    17. Bayoumi, Tamim & Saborowski, Christian, 2014. "Accounting for reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1-29.
    18. Chang, Mei-Ching & Suardi, Sandy & Chang, Yuanchen, 2017. "Foreign exchange intervention in Asian countries: What determine the odds of success during the credit crisis?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 370-390.
    19. Streit, Daniel, 2016. "Firm-level effects of asymmetric intervention in foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the Swiss currency floor," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 289-312.
    20. Jaromir Benes & Andrew Berg & Rafael Portillo & David Vavra, 2015. "Modeling Sterilized Interventions and Balance Sheet Effects of Monetary Policy in a New-Keynesian Framework," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 81-108, February.
    21. Lawrence L. Kreicher & Robert N. McCauley, 2021. "Managing the Dollar Over Its Cycles," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 49(2), pages 143-158, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chang, Mei-Ching & Suardi, Sandy & Chang, Yuanchen, 2017. "Foreign exchange intervention in Asian countries: What determine the odds of success during the credit crisis?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 370-390.
    2. Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Central bank authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Melvin, Michael & Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2009. "Exchange rate management in emerging markets: Intervention via an electronic limit order book," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 54-63, September.
    4. Paolo Vitale, 2007. "An assessment of some open issues in the analysis of foreign exchange intervention," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 155-170.
    5. Biswajit Banerjee & Juraj Zeman & Ľudovít Ódor & William O. Riiska, 2018. "On the Effectiveness of Central Bank Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market: The Case of Slovakia, 1999–2007," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 60(3), pages 442-474, September.
    6. Lukas Menkhoff, 2010. "High‐Frequency Analysis Of Foreign Exchange Interventions: What Do We Learn?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 85-112, February.
    7. Michael Melvin & Lukas Menkhoff & Maik Schmeling, 2008. "Automating Exchange Rate Target Zones: Intervention via an Electronic Limit Order Book," CESifo Working Paper Series 2221, CESifo.
    8. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 453-522, Elsevier.
    9. Vitale, Paolo, 2006. "A Critical Appraisal of Recent Developments in the Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention," CEPR Discussion Papers 5729, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2009. "Announcements, financial operations or both? Generalizing central banks' FX reaction functions," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 367-394, December.
    11. Pasquariello, Paolo, 2007. "Informative trading or just costly noise? An analysis of Central Bank interventions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 107-143, May.
    12. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2010. "Evaluating foreign exchange market intervention: Self-selection, counterfactuals and average treatment effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 570-584, April.
    13. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2016. "On the Evolution of US Foreign-Exchange-Market Intervention: Thesis, Theory, and Institutions," NBER Chapters, in: Strained Relations: US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century, pages 1-26, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    15. Fratzscher, Marcel & Gloede, Oliver & Menkhoff, Lukas & Sarno, Lucio & Stöhr, Tobias, 2019. "When Is Foreign Exchange Intervention Effective? Evidence from 33 Countries," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 0(1), pages 132-156.
    16. Fatum, Rasmus & Pedersen, Jesper, 2009. "Real-time effects of central bank intervention in the euro market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 11-20, June.
    17. Rasmus Fatum, 2009. "Official Japanese Intervention in the JPY/USD Exchange Rate Market: Is It Effective, and through Which Channel Does It Work?," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 27(1), pages 75-98, November.
    18. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2012. "The Federal Reserve as an Informed Foreign Exchange Trader: 1973–1995," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(1), pages 127-160, March.
    19. Cavusoglu Nevin, 2011. "Exchange Rates and the Effectiveness of Actual and Oral Official Interventions: A Survey on Findings, Issues and Policy Implications," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-42, January.
    20. Jean‐Yves Gnabo & Luiz De Mello & Diego Moccero, 2010. "Interdependencies between Monetary Policy and Foreign Exchange Interventions under Inflation Targeting: The Case of Brazil and the Czech Republic," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 195-221, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2011:i:sep:p:303-324:n:v.93no.5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Scott St. Louis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.