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The Economic Effects of a Potential Armed Conflict Over Taiwan

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Abstract

This article examines the likely economic effects of a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan for the U.S. and the world by considering historical precedents. Such a conflict would likely produce a flight-to-safety in the asset market, huge disruptions in international trade, and banking problems, and it would greatly exacerbate existing fiscal pressures. The authorities of the People’s Republic of China would probably try to sell U.S. and other western securities prior to a conflict to avoid sanctions on those assets. Such sales would be temporarily disruptive but would likely have only marginal effects on yields in the longer term. Long-term effects would include disrupted trade, higher price levels, higher levels of nominal debt, and higher taxes.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher J. Neely, 2025. "The Economic Effects of a Potential Armed Conflict Over Taiwan," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 107(3), pages 1-23, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:99639
    DOI: 10.20955/r.2025.03
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    war; Taiwan; asset prices; flight-to-safety; foreign exchange reserves; international trade; sanctions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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