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KC Fed LMCI Can Help Sift Out Noise in Payroll Data

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Abstract

Data on monthly payroll growth are noisy and subject to revisions, making real-time assessment of the health of the labor market challenging. We use the information encoded in the Kansas City Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Indicators (LMCI) to get a cleaner picture of payroll growth. According to the LMCI-implied estimates of payroll growth, the labor market may be stronger than official data suggest.

Suggested Citation

  • Amaze Lusompa & Jose Mustre-del-Rio, 2025. "KC Fed LMCI Can Help Sift Out Noise in Payroll Data," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-3, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkeb:99490
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    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/10653/EconomicBulletin25LusompaMustredelRio0113.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2021. "Reprint: Is China fudging its GDP figures? Evidence from trading partner data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
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