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A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Huixin Bi
  • Chaitri Gulati
  • Jose Mustre-del-Rio

Abstract

Recently, some market observers have proposed that job vacancies could decline, and ease wage growth, without a commensurate increase in the unemployment rate. However, we find that the typical relationship of declining job vacancies and higher unemployment holds even at exceptionally low levels of the unemployment rate. A notable decline in job postings will likely coincide with an easing of tightness in the labor market, a higher unemployment rate, and slowing wage growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Huixin Bi & Chaitri Gulati & Jose Mustre-del-Rio, 2022. "A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue August 10, pages 1-4, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkeb:94772
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Figura & Christopher J. Waller, 2022. "What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?," FEDS Notes 2022-07-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    3. Thomas A. Lubik, 2021. "Revisiting the Beveridge Curve: Why Has It Shifted so Dramatically?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 21(36), October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Jobs; Labor market; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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