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To Improve the Accuracy of GDP Growth Forecasts, Add Financial Market Conditions

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas R. Cook
  • Taeyoung Doh

Abstract

More timely data on current macroeconomic conditions can reduce uncertainty about forecasts, helping policymakers mitigate the risk of extreme economic outcomes. We find that incorporating financial market conditions along with current macroeconomic conditions improves the forecast accuracy of future GDP growth. Forecasts based only on current macroeconomic conditions eventually converge to those incorporating financial market conditions, lending further support to this approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas R. Cook & Taeyoung Doh, 2021. "To Improve the Accuracy of GDP Growth Forecasts, Add Financial Market Conditions," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue June 2, 2, pages 1-5, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkeb:92501
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP; Forecasts; Financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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