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Forecasting inflation and the Great Recession

Author

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  • Marco Bassetto
  • Todd Messer
  • Christine Ostrowski

Abstract

This article shows how the recovery of inflation in 2009-10 occurred precisely at the only time (since 1985) the models would predict disinflation, i.e., inflation went up when the models said it should go down.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Bassetto & Todd Messer & Christine Ostrowski, 2013. "Forecasting inflation and the Great Recession," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 37(Q III), pages 79-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2013:i:qiii:p:79-106:n:v.37no.3
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    File URL: https://www.chicagofed.org/-/media/publications/economic-perspectives/2013/3q2013-part1-bassetto-messer-ostrowski-pdf.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Chiara Fratto & Harald Uhlig, 2020. "Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation: A Retro Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 35, pages 133-153, January.
    2. Stéphane Dées & Jochen Güntner, 2014. "Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: A panel VAR approach," Economics working papers 2014-10, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance); Recessions;

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