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An alternative measure of inflation

Author

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  • Francois R. Velde

Abstract

The author proposes an alternative measure of inflation that captures the intuition behind the use of "core" measures. Inflation is modeled as an unobserved factor affecting the components of an aggregate price index (including food and energy). The common component, estimated using Kalman filtering, resembles usual measures of core inflation; its extrapolation can be used to improve performance in forecasting core inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Francois R. Velde, 2006. "An alternative measure of inflation," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 30(Q I), pages 56-65.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2006:i:qi:p:56-65:n:v.30no.1
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    File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/2006/ep_1qtr2006_part4_velde.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jonas D. M. Fisher & Chin Te Liu & Ruilin Zhou, 2002. "When can we forecast inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 26(Q I), pages 32-44.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alan K. Detmeister, 2011. "The usefulness of core PCE inflation measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-56, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Theodore M. Crone & N. Neil K. Khettry & Loretta J. Mester & Jason A. Novak, 2013. "Core Measures of Inflation as Predictors of Total Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 505-519, March.
    3. Oguz Atuk & Mustafa Utku Ozmen, 2009. "Design and Evaluation of Core Inflation Measures for Turkey," Working Papers 0903, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    4. Stefano Siviero & Giovanni Veronese, 2011. "A policy-sensible benchmark core inflation measure," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(4), pages 648-672, December.
    5. Péter Gábriel & György Molnár & Judit Rariga, 2013. "Measures of underlying inflation," MNB Bulletin (discontinued), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 8(3), pages 25-35, October.

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    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance); Monetary policy;

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